Patel M. - Wind and Solar Power Systems.pdf - Książki techniczne EN - rajmundos9

Wind and Solar

Mukund R. Patel, Ph.D., P.E.

U.S. Merchant Marine Academy

Kings Point, New York

Formerly

Principal Engineer, General Electric Company

Fellow Engineer, Westinghouse Reasearch Center

CRC Press

Boca Raton London New York Washington, D.C.

Power Systems

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Patel, Mukind R., 1942.

Wind and solar power systems / Mukund R. Patel.

p. cm.

Includes bibliographical references and index.

ISBN 0-8493-1605-7 (alk. paper)

1. Wind power plants. 2. Solar power plants. 3. Photovoltaic power systems. I. Title.

TK1541.P38 1999

621.31

2136—dc21

98-47934

CIP

This book contains information obtained from authentic and highly regarded sources. Reprinted material

is quoted with permission, and sources are indicated. A wide variety of references are listed. Reasonable

efforts have been made to publish reliable data and information, but the author and the publisher cannot

assume responsibility for the validity of all materials or for the consequences of their use.

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Visit the CRC Press Web site at www.crcpress.com

No claim to original U.S. Government works

International Standard Book Number 0-8493-1605-7

Library of Congress Card Number 98-47934

Printed in the United States of America 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0

Printed on acid-free paper

′

Trademark Notice:

…dedicated

to my mother, Shakariba,

who practiced ingenuity,

and

to my children, Ketan, Bina, and Vijal,

who ﬂattered me by being engineers.

(Cover photo: Baix Ebre wind farm in Catalonia. With permission from

Institut Catalia d’Energia, Spain.)

Preface

The total electricity demand in 1997 in the United States of America was

three trillion kWh, with the market value of $210 billion. The worldwide

demand was 12 trillion kWh in 1997, and is projected to reach 19 trillion

kWh in 2015. This constitutes the worldwide average annual growth of

2.6 percent. The growth rate in the developing countries is projected to be

approximately 5 percent, almost twice the world average.

Most of the present demand in the world is met by fossil and nuclear power

plants. A small part is met by renewable energy technologies, such as the

wind, solar, biomass, geothermal and the ocean. Among the renewable power

sources, wind and solar have experienced a remarkably rapid growth in the

past 10 years. Both are pollution free sources of abundant power. Additionally,

they generate power near the load centers, hence eliminate the need of run-

ning high voltage transmission lines through rural and urban landscapes.

Since the early 1980s, the wind technology capital costs have declined by

80 percent, operation and maintenance costs have dropped by 80 percent

and availability factors of grid-connected plants have risen to 95 percent.

These factors have jointly contributed to the decline of the wind electricity

cost by 70 percent to 5 to 7 cents per kWh. The grid-connected wind plant

can generate electricity at cost under 5 cents per kWh. The goal of ongoing

research programs funded by the U.S. Department of Energy and the

National Renewable Energy Laboratory is to bring the wind power cost

below 4 cents per kWh by the year 2000. This cost is highly competitive with

the energy cost of the conventional power technologies. For these reasons,

wind power plants are now supplying economical clean power in many

parts of the world.

In the U.S.A., several research partners of the NREL are negotiating with

U.S. electrical utilities to install additional 4,200 MW of wind capacity with

capital investment of about $2 billion during the next several years. This

amounts to the capital cost of $476 per kW, which is comparable with the

conventional power plant costs. A recent study by the Electric Power

Research Institute projected that by the year 2005, wind will produce the

cheapest electricity available from any source. The EPRI estimates that the

wind energy can grow from less than 1 percent in 1997 to as much as

10 percent of this country’s electrical energy demand by 2020.

On the other hand, the cost of solar photovoltaic electricity is still high in

the neighborhood of 15 to 25 cents per kWh. With the consumer cost of

electrical utility power ranging from 10 to 15 cents per kWh nationwide,

photovoltaics cannot economically compete directly with the utility power

as yet, except in remote markets where the utility power is not available and

the transmission line costs would be prohibitive. Many developing countries

have large areas falling in this category. With ongoing research in the pho-

tovoltaic (pv) technologies around the world, the pv energy cost is expected

to fall to 12 to 15 cents per kWh or less in the next several years as the

learning curves and the economy of scale come into play. The research

programs funded by DOE/NREL have the goal of bringing down the pv

energy cost below 12 cents per kWh by 2000.

After the restructuring of the U.S. electrical utilities, as mandated by the

Energy Policy Act (EPAct) of 1992, the industry leaders expect the power

generation business, both conventional and renewable, to become more prof-

itable in the long run. The reasoning is that the generation business will be

stripped of regulated price and opened to competition among electricity

producers and resellers. The transmission and distribution business, on the

other hand, would still be regulated. The American experience indicates that

the free business generates more proﬁts than the regulated business. Such

is the experience in the U.K. and Chile, where the electrical power industry

had been structured similar to the EPAct of 1992 in the U.S.A.

As for the wind and pv electricity producers, they can now sell power

freely to the end users through truly open access to the transmission lines.

For this reason, they are likely to beneﬁt as much as other producers of

electricity. Another beneﬁt in their favor is that the cost of the renewable

energy would be falling as the technology advances, whereas the cost of the

electricity from the conventional power plants would rise with inﬂation. The

difference in their trends would make the wind and pv power even more

advantageous in the future.

Patel M. - Wind and Solar Power Systems.pdf

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