02.05 Reading Hands.pdf

This is the third draft of the chapter on Reading Hands in Hold’em Brain by King Yao. Please

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Hold’em Brain: Reading Hands

Reading a hand is the act of deducing the two hole cards that your opponents may hold based on

the board cards, their previous actions in the hand and their previous actions in previous hands.

The skill of reading hands is difficult to learn without experience at the poker table but experience

alone will not do the trick. With experience, a player will be exposed to different situations and

be more comfortable analyzing them since he has seen it before. But the player must think about

each situation and know what is relevant. This chapter will help any player to identify what they

need to focus on when trying to read an opponent’s hand.

In Hold’em the last card is dealt face up and is a community card, just like the other four cards on

the board. Players can know with certainty whether or not there is a flush possibility, a straight

possibility or a full house possibility. Without three cards of the same suit on the board, no player

can have a flush. Without three different cards within five cards of each other, there can be no

straight. Without a pair on the board, there can be no full house or four-of-a-kind possible. This

means hands will have a relative value based on the board. Although a royal flush is the best

possible poker hand, in Hold’em it is usually not possible for a royal flush to exist since there

needs to be at least three cards to the royal flush on the board for any player to have a royal flush.

A three-of-a-kind could be the best hand depending on the board. Other times a three-of-a-kind

is not a playable hand if there are other possibilities on the board and other players are playing

strongly.

Reading Flushes and Flush Draws

By the River, it is easy to see if a flush is possible. If there are three cards of the same suit on the

board, then any player would need both of his hole cards to be of the same suit to make a flush. If

there are four cards of the same suit on the board, then any player would have a flush with just one

card of that suit. If all five cards on the board are of the same suit, then all players have a flush, it

is just a matter of how high their flush is depending on whether or not they held a card of the same

suit in their hand.

If a player’s starting cards are of the same suit, he has three ways of making a flush. The first way

is for all three cards on the Flop to be of the same suit as the player’s two hole cards. The player

would have a flush right on the Flop. The second way is for two cards on the Flop to be of the same

suit as the player’s two hole cards, but then he needs a third card of the same suit to come on the

board on either the Turn or the River. The third way is for only one card on the Flop to be of the

same suit as the player’s two hole cards, but then he needs both the Turn card and the River card

to be of that same suit as well. The second way is the most common way.

If your cards are suited, how often will you flop a flush? How often will you flop a flush draw with

two cards of the same suit on the Flop? Here is a table with the percentage of times you will see

3, 2, 1 and 0 cards of the same suit as your two suited hole cards.

Number of cards that will come

on the Flop that are the same

suit as your hole cards

Computation

Percentage of time it

will happen

11/50 x 10/49 x 9/48

0.8%

11/50 x 10/49 x 39/48 x 3

10.9%

11/50 x 39/49 x 38/48 x 3

41.6%

39/50 x 38/49 x 37/48

46.6%

Total

100%

* the percentages do not add up to 100% due to rounding error

It is very rare to hit a flush right on the Flop, it happens less than 1% of the time. However this

does not mean that if all three cards on the board are of the same suit, that less than 1% of the time

someone has a flush. In fact, when all three cards on the Flop are of the same suit, any random

hand would have a 3.8% (10/49 x 9/48) chance of having a flush. These numbers may seem

contradictory, but they are not. In the first scenario, we start off knowing two of our cards are of

the same suit, and we need all three cards on the Flop to be of the same suit. In the second scenario,

we start off knowing that the Flop is all of the same suit. Then we need to calculate the chances

that the two cards in any one hand are of that same suit. It is the difference in the starting point.

In the first situation, we know two cards and we need three more. In the second situation, we know

three cards and we only need two more.

If you flop a flush draw with two cards of the same suit as your two hole cards, how often will you

make the Flush on the Turn, the River or neither?

When will you make your flush

if you have four cards to a flush

on the Flop?

Computation

Percentage

Turn

9/47

19.1%

River

38/47 x 9/46

15.8%

Total

9/47 + (38/47 x 9/46)

35.0%

65.0%

* the percentages on the Turn and River do not add up to the Total percentage due to rounding

error

38/47 x 37/46

The reason why there is a significantly lower percentage of hitting the flush on the River than the

Turn is that there is a chance that you hit the flush on the Turn and hit a sixth card of the same suit

on the River. But in that situation, you already have the flush, so getting another flush card on the

River is meaningless. If the Turn card does not make your flush, then there is a 19.6% chance that

Never

you will get the flush on the River (9/46). These percentages are interesting, but you will not need

them if you use DIPO (see the chapter on Pot Odds) when you are on a draw and you read hands

well.

The most common way a player will make a flush occurs when he has two cards of the same suit

in his hand and two cards of that suit comes on the Flop. Then the player can get his flush on either

the Turn or the River by hitting a fifth card of his suit. Many players like to play suited cards for

this reason. Having suited cards is useful because it adds another way of winning a hand, but it is

often overrated by many players who are willing to play any suited cards, no matter the rank or the

ability to make a straight with the two cards.

If a player makes a raise in late position when there are two cards to a flush on board, it could

signify he is on a flush draw and is raising to try to get a free card on the Turn. If an opponent

makes this play when you are in early position, you may want to think about betting on the Turn if

you think your made hand is good at the moment. The free card raise is a useful strategy, as is the

counter strategy of betting into the raiser if a flush card does not come. This is discussed in greater

detail in the Free Cards chapter. If there are two or more players in the hand, a raise by a nut flush

draw has value even on that round by itself. In the chart above, it shows there is a total of 34.9%

chance that a player will catch a flush if he has four to a flush on the Flop. If there are two or more

players in, then the player on the nut flush draw is getting 2:1 odds (equivalent to 33%) when he

bets and raises. It is important to note the nut flush draw aspect since other players maybe on flush

draws themselves. It would be a travesty to catch a flush draw only to be beaten by a higher flush.

Another way for player to make a flush is when he starts with two suited cards, flops one card of

the same suit as his hole cards, and then catch a runner-runner flush. A runner-runner flush means

catching a card of the same suit on both the Turn and the River. Typically catching a flush this

way comes almost by accident. The player would not be correct to draw to the runner-runner flush

unless he had something else going for him, such as a split pair on the Flop. It would not be until

the Turn that a player who catches a flush should use it as a primary reason to stay in the hand.

If you flop a runner-runner flush draw, how often will you have a four flush on the Turn and how

often will you actually make it on the River?

Runner-runner flush draw possibilities, assuming the two

hole cards are of the same suit

Computation

Percentage

Pick up a flush draw on the Turn (the Turn makes two cards

of the same suit on the board along with your two hole cards

are of that same suit)

10/47

21.3%

No flush draw on the Turn

37/47

78.7%

Catch the flush on the River (both the Turn and the River are

of the same suit, thus giving three cards of the same suit on

the board, along with your two hole cards that are of the

same suit)

10/47 x 9/46

4.2%

Pick up a flush draw on the Turn but do not catch the flush

on the River (the Turn makes two cards of the same suit on

the board along with your two hole cards of the same suit,

but the River does not make the flush)

10/47 x 37/46 17.1%

In the case where there are four cards of the same suit on the board, it becomes much easier for any

player to have a flush. In fact, any player with the A of that suit when there are three cards of the

same suit on the Flop or Turn, will likely have enough pot odds to see the hand to the River to see

if he makes the nut flush. The player(s) with the K or the Q of that suit needs to be aware that they

are not drawing to the nut flush.

By the River, if there are not three cards of the same suit on the board and if you think your

opponent was on a flush draw, you will not need to worry about a flush. This may allow you to

bluff if your opponent indeed had a flush draw while you do not have much of a hand yourself.

Reading Straights and Straight Draws

Straights are a lot tougher to read than flushes and it can be more difficult to determine if someone

has received the card he needs to make his straight. After the River card is on the board, it is

simple to determine when a flush is possible. If there are three or more cards of the same suit on

the board, then there is always the chance that someone may have a flush. With straights, it is a lot

more difficult because it is not nearly as obvious when someone has filled up on their straight draw

as opposed to when someone has filled up on their flush draw. A large percentage of boards will

have straight possibilities, especially those that do not contain a pair. As with flush draws, it is

important to determine the possibility of a player going for a straight by seeing the sequence of the

board. Since straights are tougher to read than flushes, this is a little bit more tricky with reading

straight draws.

Flop : K-J-5 rainbow

Turn : 9

River : 7

With Board #1, there are three different two-card combinations that could make a straight. They

are: QT, T8, 86.

This does not mean that these two card holdings are equally likely to be held by any player. Of

course, all those two card holdings are just as likely to be initially dealt to any player, but since

most players will not view those three combinations as equal in value, it means they will more

likely play one hand than another. The hand players will play most out of those three hands is QT,

since it is a hand that consists of two relatively high cards, many players are willing to play this

hand, especially if it is suited. Some players are more selective and will only play it only in certain

situations, other players are not very selective and will play QT in any position. Those same

players who are not very selective may also play T8 and 86 as well, but not as often as they will

Board #1

with QT. Even terrible players would understand that high cards are better than lower cards.

It is also important to note the texture and sequence of the board. Even if someone did play T8 and

86 and saw the Flop, it would be the rare player and/or the rare situation that allowed him to

continue with the hand and see the Turn. On the Turn he would pick up either an open-ended

straight draw (with T8) or an inside straight draw (with 86), and would have more reason to

continue to the River. With a Flop like K-J-5, anyone holding QT would likely play the hand out

to see the River, but those holding T8 and 86 would have to find a special reason to stay in the hand,

and thus would not be in the hand to see their straight completed on the River.

If we change the sequence of the board cards, we can see how those three hands would be played

differently.

Flop : K-9-7 rainbow

Turn : J

River: 5

With a flop of K-9-7, both T8 and 86 would have an open-ended straight draw. Players holding

these hands will continue with the hand until the River, and probably rightfully so since they will

have eight outs to make their straight. If flush cards or the board pairs up and there is strength in

betting, it may change the odds a bit, but that would not concern most players. QT would also

likely stay in on the Flop as well since QT holds an inside straight draw. A hand like QT can be

bullied out of the hand more easily than T8 and 86 since the holder of QT quickly recognizes they

only have the four J’s to make the straight, whereas the holders of T8 and 86 each have a total of

eight cards that can make their straight, twice as many chances as QT. So if there are two bets to

the holder of QT, the pot odds may dictate a fold to be in order, even though there is a chance to

hit the nut hand. Not everyone will fold this hand of course, but the better players will fold it if the

bet size relative to the expected pot size does not hold value.

The key idea to note between the two boards is the sequence of the arrival of the cards. When the

board develops in the fashion of Board #2, there are a greater variety of straights that someone

could turn over on the showdown than in Board #1, even though the board cards are identical after

the river. With Board #2, even with three K’s, you cannot be too comfortable given the

development of the board. After the Turn or River, you may have to back off and just call if the

other player(s) gets aggressive.

Here is another board sequence. The five cards on the board are the same as in Boards #1 & #2,

but the sequence is changed again.

Flop : J-7-5 rainbow

Turn : K

Board #2

Board #3

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