AirFleet_2009-4.pdf
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Pobierz
№ 4. 2009
Director General
Evgeny Osipov
Executive Director
Alexander Kiryanov
Production Editor
Veronika Sipeeva
Editors
Alexander Gudko
Svetlana Komagorova
Sales Director
Vladimir Zilinko
Marketing Director
Vadim Isaev
Marketing Manager
Dmitry Kuprin
Creative Director
Dmitry Bykovskiy
Photo Editor
Yuri Trubnikov
Art Director
Alvina Kirillova
Designers
Alexander Cheredayko
Boris Bulgakov
Elena Shishova
Web-projects Manager
Michael Guschin
Translation
Igor Zdarkin
Vyachelsav Smirnov
Ljudmila Vasiljuk
Tatiana Zubkova
Cover photo: Natalia Mikheeva
Photos and graphics in this issue:
Alexey Mikheev, Natalia Mikheeva,
Vladimir Karnozov, Yuri Trubnikov, Alexander
Velovich, “Tupolev“ PSC, “Motor Sich”, KUMZ,
VSMPO-AVISMA, “M2M telematics“, RATEP JSC,
Circulation: 8000
The magazine is registered in the Committee for Press of the
Russian Federation. Certificate № 016692 as of 20.10.1997.
Certificate № 77-15450 as of 19.05.2003.
Any material in this publication may not be reproduced in
any form without the written permission of the publisher. The
editorial staff’s opinion does not necessarily coincide with
that of the authors. Advertisers bear responsibility for the
content of provided materials.
AIR FLEET, 2009
ADDRESS
P.O. Box 77, Moscow, 125057, Russia
Tel.: + 7 495 626-52-11
Fax.: + 7 499 151-61-50
E-mail: af@airfleet.ru
Fighters
from boom to gloom?
CONTENTS
Military Aviation
2
Industry
28
Time to Think about Effectiveness.
Interview with Michael Voevodin
34
Looking for Government Support
is Ineffective. Interview with Vladimir
Chertovikov
38
Our Sky Indivisible. Interview with
Vyacheslav Boguslaev
Fighters: From Boom to Gloom?
Defence
22
Small Mosquito Lays Great Birds
Aircraft
24
Tu-204 - New Developments of
"Tupolev" PSC
Space Technology
44
GlONASS System to Be Reality
50
Effective Support of GLONASS is
Necessary
1
Military Aviation
FIGHTERS
FROM BOOM TO GLOOM?
Global fighter aircraft market faces some difficulties. There is no doubt about it. Our
observer Vladimir Shvariov has studied the impact of the economic downturn on the
fighter aircraft market. In his study Vladimir Shvariov compares the market development
in the first part of 2009 to 2008 and to the previous 8 years. The author believes
half-year results cannot speak for the whole year but this period is enough to arrive at
preliminary but well reasoned conclusions.
2
Military Aviation
Total value of the identified contracted
obligations concluded for export of multi-
purpose fighters for the first part of 2009
is estimated at 1.21 billion US dollars.
However, it is too early to speak about
the contraction of the fighter market and
to give forecast. There are reasons why.
The economic recession has clashed
first with the necessity of upgrading the
available fighter fleet in almost twenty
nations and then with an arrival of the
fifth generation fighter F-35 to the market.
Today, reduction of procurement and
putting-offs have only been announced
for three programs. Vietnam reduced its
orders of SU-30MK2 fighters from 12
to 8 and adjourned the contract talks
on procurement of weapons for these
fighters.
Sri-Lanka has announced its intention
to postpone the program of purchasing
5 MiG-29 fighters in Russia. Moreover,
the Sri-Lanka’s decision is more based
on political than on economic reasons.
The Sri-Lanka’s government planned
to conclude an agreement on MiG-
29 to enhance the national Air Force
abilities before beginning the wide
scale combat actions against Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) group.
However, after the government forces
in the Northern part of the country have
successfully accomplished the operation
and completely destructed all LTTE
bases, procurement of the fighters has
no longer become the first priority and
it may be postponed for some time.
Nevertheless, despite the accepted
decision to postpone the Russian fighters
procurement they should become the
primary candidates to replace aircraft Kfir
and MiG-27 in the long view, Sri-Lanka
AF experts say.
Thailand has called off for a minimum
period of two years its decision to
purchase the second lot of JAS-39
fighters Gripen. In general, world order
backlog for the multi-purpose fighters
formed up during 2001–2008 makes
77.737 billion US dollars. During the
considered period cost value of the
orders kept varying a great deal. The
minimum backlog of of 1.829 billion US
Due to extremely big contracts on the purchase of
multi-purpose fighters in 2007–2008 years, this
year the market will undoubtedly go down.
dollars was registered in 2004 whereas
the local minimum of 3.778 billion US
dollars was registered in 2006. For the
last two years orders for the exported
fighters has grown up considerably. The
biggest backlog of $22.769 billion was
formed in 2007, which resulted in 29,3%
of entire backlog for the exported fighters
formed during the considered 8-year
period. In 2008 the figure amounted to
20.623 billion US dollars (the second
result in respect of the cost). All in all,
the number of orders placed during
2007-2008 resulted in 56% of the entire
volume of orders made during the whole
period of 8 years.
Due to extremely big contracts on the
purchase of multi-purpose fighters in
2007–2008 years, this year the market
will undoubtedly go down. In 2009 the
weakening of the market will probably
be considerable, especially taking in
account the world economic downturn.
However, the recession in the market
of multi-purpose fighters will be short
because along with the improvement
of the economic situation more than
twenty nations will resume the great scale
programs related to the fighters purchase.
Most likely the sharp growth of the world
market will take place in 2011 and
considerable orders increase compared
to 2009 is already expected in 2010.
There is a number of contacts made
in the first half of 2009 that are worth
paying attention to.
The USA have concluded two
extremely important contracts, which in
respect of the future prospects have a key
importance for the state, of delivery of
pre-production trial prototypes of F-35
fighters of the fifth generation. A $252
million contract of delivery of two fighters
F-35 Lightning-2 was awarded the UK.
3
AIR FLEET
·
4
·
2009
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78
)
Military Aviation
Contracts and intentions declared in the first half of the year of 2009
(multi-purpose fighters)
Exporter
Importer
Aaircraft type
Orders
Year of order
Deliveries
Belgium
Jordan
F-16AM/BM
9
2009
9**
The Netherlands
Chili
F-16А/В “block-15”
“Fighting Falcon”
16
2009
16**
Russia
Vietnam
Su-30МК2В
8
2009
4**
4**
The USA
The UK
F-35B “Lighning -2”
2
2009
2**
The USA
The Netherlands
F-35A “Lightning-2”
1
2009
1**
The USA
South Korea
F-16С/D “block 52”
“Fightiung Falcon”
35*
2009
5**
15**
15**
France
India
“Mirage-2000H”
51*
2009
12**
24**
15**
Sweden
Thailand
JAS-39C/D “Gripen”
6
2009
3**
3**
* upgrade is placed in the column “Orders”
* estimated contract cost is placed in the column “Value”
** estimated supplies are in the column “Deliveries”
Another $120 million contract of delivery
of 1 fighter F-35 Lightning-2 was made
with the Netherlands.
In the beginning of July Israeli Air
Force sent an official request to the US
Department of Defense to purchase 25
F-35 Lightning-2 aircraft. However, the
negotiations held to fix the final price
of the aircraft and integration of Israeli
produced systems on them will continue.
Initially, the Israeli Ministry of Defense
planned to purchase some one hundred
F-35 aircraft to replace the biggest part
of F-16 fighters" fleet, the delivery of
which is planned for 2014 or 2015.
However, in the Defense Procurement
Draft for 2008-2012, made public in
September, 2008, envisages allocations
only for the purchase of 25 fighters F-35.
Besides, in the first part of 2009 the
USA and South Korea concluded a big
contract worth 250 million US dollars to
upgrade 35 fighters F-16C/D block-52
Fighting Falcon.
The total cost of the three contracts is
$622 million gives the palm to the USA in
competition for the results of the first part
of 2009.
The second place goes to Russia with
its delivery contract of 8 SU-30-MK2V
aircraft for Vietnam (estimated at $320
million).
The Netherlands ranks third with $ 270
million delivery contract of 16 fighters
F-16A/B from the national Air Force
block-15 Fighting Falcon signed with
Chili. The aircraft shall be upgraded by
Lockheed Martin prior to their supply.
The results of the first part of 2009
are likely to mark a considerable
improvement in talks between France
and India on a long-expected agreement
on the upgrade of 52 Mirage-2000H
fighters. By July 2009, the Sides
have arrived to the final stage of the
negotiations. The cost of the agreement is
estimated at 100 billion rupees ($ 2.05
billion).
India and France have been in talks
on 51 multi-mission Mirage-2000H
fighters upgrade for more than two years.
The major obstacle was the price. The
French Contractor Companies, Dassault
Aviation and Thales insisted on the price
of 140 billion rupees necessary for the
upgrade whereas the Indian Defense
Ministry estimated the program at 100
billion rupees. The contradictions were
reportedly cleared off and the French
manufacturers accepted the conditions of
the Ministry of Defense of India.
From 4 up to 6 first Mirage-2000H
aircraft are planned to upgraded in
France, the rest are to be upgraded in
"HAL" Company. The modernization made
for the on-board equipment, engines,
structural elements and weapons system
will enable to extend the operation of 51
Mirage-2000H aircraft of the Indian Air
Force for the period of 20 to 25 years.
Besides, Belgium has reached an
agreement with Jordan to deliver 9
4
Military Aviation
Year of supplies
value (mn US
dollars)
Type of an
agreement
Remarks
Source
2010
83,5
Intention
From AF, 2 F-16BM
“Forecast International”,
21.01.09
2009
270
Contract
From AF, upgraded prior to supply by
Lockheed Martin
“Jane’s Defense Weekly”,
15.05.09
2010
2011
320*
Contract
Initial order for 12 aircraft is reduced up
to 8 aircraft (no weapons), for aircraft are
optional
“Commersant”, 17.05.09
2014
251,9
Contract
Pre-production trial prototype
US Departnebt of
Defense, 02.06.09
2011
119,6
Contract
Pre-production trial prototype
US Departnebt of
Defense, 02.06.09
2011
2012
2013
250
Contract
DSCA, 26.05.09
2010
2011
2012
2050
Contract
IANS, 08.02.09
2013
2014
300*
Contract
The program accomplishment is
postponed for 2 years
“Jane’s Defense Weekly”,
24.02.09
F-16AM/BM fighters from the national
Air Force. The presumed deal is estimated
at $83.5 million.
Such a modest result of the first part
of 2009 is not quite objective as many
countries either have announced or are
going to announce international tenders
for the purchase of multi-purpose fighters.
Besides, some countries have reported
their intentions to purchase fighters
directly from the country of production.
Since the fighters segment is the most
significant among all categories of the
aviation equipment, the further analysis
of the market development will be made
in four major stages, namely: current
programs related to the fighters upgrade
(2009 and so on); new fighters supply in
2009 and further based on the contracts
concluded before January 1, 2009;
current and scheduled tenders; an overall
balance in respect to the fighters supply
for the previous and subsequent 5 years
(2004 – 2013).
5
AIR FLEET
·
4
·
2009
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78
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