03.03 Turn.pdf

6/6/04 This is the third draft of the chapter on The Turn in Hold’em Brain by King Yao. Please

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Hold’em Brian: The Turn

Thinking on The Turn

The Turn is a crucial time in a Hold’em hand. The bet size has doubled and the pot is bigger too.

Possible draws that were present on the Flop may have gotten there on the Turn. New possible

draws may have developed. You should think about what you want to do on the Turn, and you

should also think about the impact that your decision on the Turn will have on the play of the River.

Here are some of the issues to watch out for:

1. Did any draws on the Flop get there on the Turn?

If there were two cards to a flush on the Flop and the Turn is a third card of the same suit, then

someone with a flush draw on the Flop would already have a flush. This could mean you are

drawing dead already. The same issue can happen to straight draws. But against straight draws,

a hand can improve to a flush to beat them, so there may be more chances for other players to win.

You should not automatically fold when it looks like a draw may have gotten there on the Turn,

but you should still be aware of that possibility.

2. Did the Turn card provide any possible draws?

If the Flop was a rainbow Flop, the Turn card may give someone a flush draw if it is the same suit

as one of the cards on the Flop. There will now be two cards of the same suit on the board, and if

the River is a third card of the same suit, then anyone holding two cards of that suit would have a

flush. A player may have picked up 9 outs in addition to the other outs he had. Similarly, new

straight draws can be picked up on the Turn.

3. Did the Turn card pair the board?

If the Turn card pairs the board, it could change a lot of things. A player with a set or two pair on

the Flop could now have a full house, which means anyone with a flush draw or straight draw

would be drawing dead (unless they have a straight flush draw). It does not necessarily mean

someone definitely has a full house, so draws can usually still continue with the hand. If the Turn

card pairs the top card on the Flop, then anyone with a split middle or bottom pair would be

drawing dead against another player who had trips. Pocket pairs may have two outs if the

opponent has trips. However, if a player is concerned about his opponent being on a draw (flush

draw, straight draw or overcards to the board), the pairing of the board on the Turn is good news

because it means no draws have yet been made. For example:

Your hand: T ♦ 9 ♦

Flop: 9♠8♠3♣

Turn: 3 ♥

The only hand that was trailing your hand on the Flop that has improved over your hand is a hand

that contained a 3. If you were up against any other two cards, then the status quo holds. If you

were ahead on the Flop, you would still be ahead. If you were behind on the Flop, then you are still

behind. Any draws are still drawing to beat your made hand of top pair. Thus you can be

comfortable that you are still ahead against draws or lower pairs. The 3 ♥ on the Turn is almost as

good as a 2 ♥ .

4. What if you still only have two overcards on the Turn?

If you only have overcards to the board on the Turn, the pot will usually not be big enough to

continue with the hand. If someone has a pair, at most, you will have 6 outs. But someone could

have two pair or better, which would mean you would be drawing dead with your overcards. If

another player has a pair, and his kicker is the same rank as one of your cards, then you would only

have 3 outs. In order for a call by a hand with two overcards on the Turn to be correct against a

player who has a pair, the expected pot size has to be at least 7 big bets. But that is only if you are

sure you really do have 6 outs, sometimes you will have fewer outs, so you need to adjust your

expected outs to a lower number (see the Outs and Pot Odds chapters). On the bright side, there

are some cases when you are actually ahead even with no pair. You could be up against a player

who has no pair but is on a draw. In that case, he could have as many as 15 outs, but that would

mean you have more outs than him to win the hand. If you can identify these situations correctly,

then you would be able to call a Turn bet with just two overcards. This is where the ability to read

hands well is a nice advantage.

5. What if you are still drawing to a straight or a flush on the Turn?

Typically when this happens, you want to see the River as cheaply as possible. On the Flop, you

may be willing to fire away if there are two or more opponents. Against two other players, you are

getting 2:1 odds while there is a 35% chance you will hit the flush by the River. But on the Turn,

if you have not made your flush yet, you would only have a 19.6% (9/46) chance of getting it on

the River. Unless there are still a lot of players left, it would be worth it to put in as few chips as

possible on the Turn. This applies to straight draws as well. If a player is aggressive on the Flop

but slows down on the Turn, it may be a sign that he was and still is on a flush draw.

6. Did an A come on the Turn?

Many players will play any starting hand if it has an A in it, but not necessarily any hand that

contains a K or Q. This is why the focus here is on the A coming on the Turn rather than other high

cards. Many players will go one step further and call bets on the Flop just to see if they can hit a

pair of A’s on the Turn whereas they would be less apt to “take a card off” with a K or Q.

Normally these players are calling stations. Or it could be a shorthanded game where that strategy

would not be as egregiously incorrect. If you are up against a player with this characteristic, you

have to be aware when an A comes on the Turn. If an A does come on the Turn while you are in

early position, and your opponent is an aggressive player who will play any hand that contains an

A, then you may decide to check and let him bet. Aggressive players may be willing to bet

whether or not they have an A, because they think it is worth a try to buy the pot, especially given

that you have shown weakness with a check. If you are in last position against an aggressive

player, and he checks to you when an A comes on the Turn, you may simply check back and try to

induce him to bluff on the River. It should be clear to him that you are afraid of the A, and he may

think a bluff can actually work. When there are more opponents, it is more likely that one of them

now has a pair of A’s.

7. Position is key

Players who have raised in late position on the Flop may now check on the Turn if they were

raising on a draw. Sometimes the action on the Flop is just posing. Think of it like peacocks

flashing their bright and colorful tails. Players are betting and raising, sometimes with very little,

as they jostle for an image and positioning on the Turn. When the Turn comes and the bet size has

doubled, many players will now play out the hand to its real strength. This means draws and

overcards that have not gotten there will slow down and the made hands are the ones doing the

betting and raising. Having a good position to watch the action before it gets to you is mighty

useful on the Turn.

Betting on the Turn Part I

If you have a hand that you believe is the current best hand, you should seriously consider betting

on the Turn rather than trying for a check-raise. Going for a check-raise on the Turn is more

dangerous because a free card has more value to players who are behind because the bet size on the

Turn has doubled. Often players on a draw can call on the Flop with correct pot odds, but when the

bet doubles on the Turn, they no longer have correct pot odds to call. If you bet on the Turn and

they call when they are drawing without correct odds, then they are making a mistake. If you

check and they get a free card to see the River, then you are the one making a mistake.

In late position, if other players have checked, you should bet even with a mediocre hand. Their

check has signified they have weaker hands than you (although they could also be springing a trap

with a check-raise if they suspect you will bet when checked to). If you get called on the Turn and

you are worried you do not have the best hand, you will often be able to check it down on the River

and show your hand.

In early position, if you think a late position player is on the draw, and you are likely to have the

best hand at the moment, you should bet instead of trying for a check-raise. You can bet out on the

Turn even if they had raised on the Flop as they may have been raising to get a free card on the

Turn. This may be easier said than done, because in practice, you may not be sure if he has a draw

or a made hand. In these spots, knowing your opponents and reading hands well will be a big

advantage to you.

Raising on the Turn for a free showdown

This issue was discussed in the Semi-Bluffing chapter. Here is an example of raising on the Turn

to get free showdown.

You are in late position with A♣9♣. You open raise pre-Flop and both blinds call.

Flop: A ♦ K♣8 ♥

Both blinds check to you and you bet with your pair of A’s and middle kicker. The small blind

check-raises and the big blind folds. You call.

Turn: 2♣

You have added a flush draw to your pair of A’s (two clubs on the board, two clubs in your hand).

The small blind bets. The small blind is a loose and aggressive player and you think he may have

a pair of A’s with a weaker kicker than yours. A check-raise on the Flop would be consistent with

that. But he could also have a hand that is better than yours, such as AJ, AT, A8, K8, 88. It is

important that you get to the showdown in this hand because you may have the best hand.

However the 2♣ on the Turn has given you some extra outs. You now have a flush draw and have

an additional 9 outs to your hand if you were behind on the Turn. You may decide to raise on the

Turn with the idea of checking on the river if you do not improve. Your opponent will likely just

call with an A and a good kicker (AJ, AT) as he would be afraid you held AK, a common holding

for tight pre-Flop raises such as yourself. But even if he did re-raise you on the Turn with a better

hand, you probably still have at least 9 outs.

Now if all goes as planned, your opponent will call the raise and check on the River. Your plan if

you do not hit your flush is to check and show down your hand. If the flush comes on the River,

you should bet of course. Typically your opponent will be surprised to see you with the backdoor

flush and mumble something about a bad beat, even if they were already beaten by your kicker. If

you lose, you would have lost the same amount if you had just called the Turn and then called his

bet on the River. If you win without making the flush, you win the same amount as you would

have anyway. If you win with the flush or with a 9 on the River (for two pair), then you would win

an extra bet that you would not have otherwise.

The deceptive nature of the flush draw that you picked up on the Turn adds to the complexity of

this hand. It also shows the extra value that suited starting hands have over non-suited starting

hands (but do not go crazy with this concept, it only adds a little bit of value).

Betting on the Turn Part II

Sometimes you will want to bet on the Turn with the intention of checking on the River. This is

similar to the strategy of raising for a free showdown, except that instead of raising, you are betting.

This strategy requires that you are last to act and you are the aggressor. If you have raised

pre-Flop, bet on the Flop and on the Turn as well, you are clearly saying you have a strong hand.

If your opponent check-raises on the Turn after all of your aggression, then it is usually clear he

has an even stronger hand. But if your opponent has a mediocre hand and/or is passive, then he

may simply call your bet on the Turn and check to you on the River. If you had a mediocre hand

and he had outs, t would be even better if he folded. This is useful when you are not sure if you

have the better hand or not, as you are not giving him any free cards when you are ahead.

If you had decided to check on the Turn, you may still be willing to call a bet on the River since

he may be bluffing, and you could win with just high cards. In that case, checking on the Turn with

the intention of calling on the River would yield the same result as betting on the Turn with the

intention of checking on the River. If you checked on the Turn and called a bet on the River, you

would win one bet if you won, and lose one bet if you lost. If you had bet the Turn and checked

on the River, then you would win one bet if you won and lost one bet if you lost. However, if you

bet on the Turn, and you catch on the River, you now have the option to bet again on the River and

win two bets. This can happen too if you checked the Turn and then raised on the River. However,

a raise on the River will seem stronger to most opponents, and you may be less likely to get called

in that scenario. Also, if you checked the Turn, you would not have received the possible benefit

of your opponent folding on the Turn after you bet.

Here is an example. You are in late position and you open raise.

Your hand: AQo

A loose player in the big blind calls. The two of you see the Flop heads-up.

Flop: K-7-6 rainbow

Your loose opponent checks and you bet. He calls.

Turn: 2

Your loose opponent checks. Even though you do not have a pair, you should consider betting

again. You know that he will call with any pair, but if he does not, then you are ahead and you

would not want him to get a free card on the River.

The key to this hand is that he may fold hands like T9 and T8 when you bet. With these exact

hands, it would be a mistake for your opponent to fold. With T9 or T8, he would have 10 outs, 4

for the inside straight and 6 for a pair. The pot is small (only 4.25 big bets), but he would have

enough pot odds to call. From his perspective, if he knew he had 10 outs, then this is the analysis

he should be making:

Computation

Result

Good Number

10 x 4.25

42.5

Bad Number

46 -10

The pot is offering him enough odds to call. But he does not know he has 10 outs. He may think

he only has 4 outs or he may estimate he has 7 outs on average (4 outs for the straight and a 50%

chance to have an additional 6 outs). With those assumptions, it would look like a call is a poor

play.

Computation

Result

Good Number

7 x 4.25

29.75

Bad Number

46 - 7

If you bet your AQo, and he folds an inside straight draw, he is making a mistake. That is a great

benefit of your bet because it gives him a chance to make an incorrect decision.

If he does call you on the Turn, you can check on the River. If he was on a draw, he will not call

now unless he made the draw or a pair. If he had a pair, he is more likely to call again. If you bet,

you are likely to be putting yourself in a situation where you will lose one bet if you have the worst

DIPO method with 10 outs

DIPO method with 4 outs

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