2006 NWS EL NINO 4p.PDF

AUGUST 2006

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

What are El Niño, La Niña, and ENSO?

Near the end of each calendar year, ocean surface temperatures warm along the coasts of Ecuador and

northern Peru. In the past, local residents referred to this annual warming as “El Niño,” meaning “The Child,”

due to its appearance around the Christmas season. The appearance of El Niño signiied the end of the

ishing season and the arrival of the time for Peruvian ishermen to repair their nets and maintain their boats.

Every two to seven years a much stronger warming appears along the west coast of South America, which

lasts for several months and is often accompanied by heavy rainfall in the arid coastal regions of Ecuador

and northern Peru. Over time the term El Niño began to be used in reference to these major warm episodes.

During the 1960s, scientists began to link the abnormally warm waters along the west coast of South America

with abnormally warm waters throughout the central and east-central equatorial Paciic. In addition, the warmer

than average waters were shown to be closely related to

a global atmospheric pressure oscillation known as the

Southern Oscillation.

Maps showing latitudes, longitudes, and ocean

temperatures (in degrees Celsius)

(NOAA/NCEP/CPC)

The term El Niño now refers to the coupled ocean-

atmosphere phenomenon characterized by:

►

Abnormally warm sea surface temperatures from the

date line (180W) east to the South American coast

Changes in the distribution of tropical rainfall from

the eastern Indian Ocean east to the tropical Atlantic

Changes in sea level pressure throughout the global

Tropics (low-index phase of the Southern Oscilla-

tion)

Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes in

the Tropics and portions of the extratropics in both

hemispheres.

►

Other terms commonly used for the El Niño phenomenon

include “Paciic warm episode” and “El Niño/ Southern

Oscillation (ENSO) episode.”

In contrast to El Niño, La Niña is characterized by

anomalously cool water in the central and east-

central equatorial Paciic. It also results in changes in

the intensity and distribution of rainfall in the Tropics

and in changes in the patterns of sea level pressure

(corresponding to the “high-index” phase of the Southern

Oscillation) and atmospheric circulation that affect many

areas worldwide. Another term commonly used for the La

Niña phenomenon is “Paciic cold episode.”

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The El Niño/ La Niña phenomena are the main sources

of year-to-year variability in weather and climate for

many areas of the world. El Niño and La Niña tend to

alternate in an irregular cycle, which is often referred to

as the ENSO cycle. The transition between El Niño and

La Niña tends to be more rapid than the transition from

La Niña to El Niño. El Niño episodes tend to:

Why do we have ENSO?

ENSO appears to be a necessary mechanism for

maintaining long-term global climate stability by

transporting heat from the Tropics to the higher

latitudes.

What are the Effects of

El Niño and La Niña on the

United States?

►

Develop during the Northern Hemisphere spring

season

Occur every 3-5 years

Usually last for 9-12 months.

►

Effects of El Niño

El Niño conditions inluence wintertime

atmospheric low across the eastern

North Paciic and North America. There is

considerable event-to-event variability in the

character of El Niño episodes and in some

areas, impacts can vary substantially from

In contrast, La Niña may last 1-3 years; however, there

is considerable event-to-event variability in the timing,

intensity and evolution of both El Niño and La Niña.

Periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present are

referred to as ENSO-neutral.

Typical Winter Patterns during El Niño (NOAA/NCEP/CPC)

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Effects of La Niña

La Niña conditions tend to inluence wintertime

atmospheric low across the eastern North Paciic

and North America, as shown in the igure below. La

Niña episodes display considerable event-to-event

variability and the overall effects tend to be less

predictable than those for El Niño.

one event to another. However, there are some

sections of the United States where impacts are

fairly consistent and predictable, especially when

associated with strong El Niño episodes.

In general, El Niño results in increased precipitation

across California and the southern tier of states,

and decreased precipitation in the Paciic Northwest

and in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A milder

than normal winter across the northern states and

western Canada is also a common effect. In the

eastern United States, El Niño episodes favor more

coastal storms at the expense of Alberta Clippers

(fast eastward-tracking storms across the northern

states) in winter and early spring. During the warm

season, El Niño inluences hurricane development,

resulting in more eastern Paciic hurricanes and

fewer Atlantic hurricanes.

Seasonal precipitation impacts are generally

opposite to those of El Niño. During La Niña winters,

large portions of central North America experience

increased storminess, and an increased frequency

of signiicant cold-air outbreaks, while the southern

states experience less storminess and precipitation.

There also tends to be considerable month-to-month

variations in temperature, rainfall, and storminess

across central North America during the winter and

spring seasons, in response to the more variable

atmospheric circulation throughout the period. In the

Typical Winter Patterns during La Niña (NOAA/NCEP/CPC)

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Page

eastern U.S., during the winter, there are generally

fewer coastal storms and more Alberta Clippers (fast

eastward-tracking storms across the northern states)

than normal. In the summer and autumn, La Niña

can inluence hurricane development, often resulting

in fewer eastern Paciic hurricanes and more Atlantic

hurricanes.

Use of Indicators and Indices

One of the primary indicators of ENSO events,

Sea Surface Temperature (SST), is closely

monitored throughout the Paciic Ocean,

including Niño 3.4, a region stretching along

the equator from 170ºW to 120ºW longitude

and from 5ºN to 5ºS latitude. An index for

monitoring and assessing the oceanic state

of ENSO, known as the Oceanic Niño Index

(ONI), is based on this region and represents

the sea surface temperature departure from a

long-term average.

Use of Computer Models

Numerical models have been developed to

study and predict ENSO events and their

effects on weather patterns throughout the

world. Though by no means perfect, under

certain conditions, these models can indicate

which climatic conditions are likely to prevail

during the next season or two.

Map showing latitude, longitude, sea surface temperature in degrees

Celsius, and the area known as Niño 3.4.

Where Can I Find More

Information?

How do Scientists Monitor

and Predict ENSO

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center

web site has myriad resources, including

educational materials, information on

current conditions and outlooks, and

links to other informative sites:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/

precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml

Collection of Data

NOAA operates a network of 70 stationary buoys in

the equatorial Paciic, called the Tropical Atmosphere/

Ocean (TAO) array, which provides data about upper-

ocean and sea surface conditions. Other important data

come from satellites, radiosondes, and the high-density

U.S. surface data network.

NOAA has created one primary web site

that allows access to many other

resources:

http://www.elnino.noaa.gov

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