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AUGUST 2006
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
What are El Niño, La Niña, and ENSO?
Near the end of each calendar year, ocean surface temperatures warm along the coasts of Ecuador and
northern Peru. In the past, local residents referred to this annual warming as “El Niño,” meaning “The Child,”
due to its appearance around the Christmas season. The appearance of El Niño signiied the end of the
ishing season and the arrival of the time for Peruvian ishermen to repair their nets and maintain their boats.
Every two to seven years a much stronger warming appears along the west coast of South America, which
lasts for several months and is often accompanied by heavy rainfall in the arid coastal regions of Ecuador
and northern Peru. Over time the term El Niño began to be used in reference to these major warm episodes.
During the 1960s, scientists began to link the abnormally warm waters along the west coast of South America
with abnormally warm waters throughout the central and east-central equatorial Paciic. In addition, the warmer
than average waters were shown to be closely related to
a global atmospheric pressure oscillation known as the
Southern Oscillation.
Maps showing latitudes, longitudes, and ocean
temperatures (in degrees Celsius)
(NOAA/NCEP/CPC)
The term El Niño now refers to the coupled ocean-
atmosphere phenomenon characterized by:
►
Abnormally warm sea surface temperatures from the
date line (180W) east to the South American coast
Changes in the distribution of tropical rainfall from
the eastern Indian Ocean east to the tropical Atlantic
Changes in sea level pressure throughout the global
Tropics (low-index phase of the Southern Oscilla-
tion)
Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes in
the Tropics and portions of the extratropics in both
hemispheres.
►
►
►
Other terms commonly used for the El Niño phenomenon
include “Paciic warm episode” and “El Niño/ Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) episode.”
In contrast to El Niño, La Niña is characterized by
anomalously cool water in the central and east-
central equatorial Paciic. It also results in changes in
the intensity and distribution of rainfall in the Tropics
and in changes in the patterns of sea level pressure
(corresponding to the “high-index” phase of the Southern
Oscillation) and atmospheric circulation that affect many
areas worldwide. Another term commonly used for the La
Niña phenomenon is “Paciic cold episode.”
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
Page 2
The El Niño/ La Niña phenomena are the main sources
of year-to-year variability in weather and climate for
many areas of the world. El Niño and La Niña tend to
alternate in an irregular cycle, which is often referred to
as the ENSO cycle. The transition between El Niño and
La Niña tends to be more rapid than the transition from
La Niña to El Niño. El Niño episodes tend to:
Why do we have ENSO?
ENSO appears to be a necessary mechanism for
maintaining long-term global climate stability by
transporting heat from the Tropics to the higher
latitudes.
What are the Effects of
El Niño and La Niña on the
United States?
►
Develop during the Northern Hemisphere spring
season
Occur every 3-5 years
Usually last for 9-12 months.
►
►
Effects of El Niño
El Niño conditions inluence wintertime
atmospheric low across the eastern
North Paciic and North America. There is
considerable event-to-event variability in the
character of El Niño episodes and in some
areas, impacts can vary substantially from
In contrast, La Niña may last 1-3 years; however, there
is considerable event-to-event variability in the timing,
intensity and evolution of both El Niño and La Niña.
Periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña is present are
referred to as ENSO-neutral.
Typical Winter Patterns during El Niño (NOAA/NCEP/CPC)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
Page 3
Effects of La Niña
La Niña conditions tend to inluence wintertime
atmospheric low across the eastern North Paciic
and North America, as shown in the igure below. La
Niña episodes display considerable event-to-event
variability and the overall effects tend to be less
predictable than those for El Niño.
one event to another. However, there are some
sections of the United States where impacts are
fairly consistent and predictable, especially when
associated with strong El Niño episodes.
In general, El Niño results in increased precipitation
across California and the southern tier of states,
and decreased precipitation in the Paciic Northwest
and in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A milder
than normal winter across the northern states and
western Canada is also a common effect. In the
eastern United States, El Niño episodes favor more
coastal storms at the expense of Alberta Clippers
(fast eastward-tracking storms across the northern
states) in winter and early spring. During the warm
season, El Niño inluences hurricane development,
resulting in more eastern Paciic hurricanes and
fewer Atlantic hurricanes.
Seasonal precipitation impacts are generally
opposite to those of El Niño. During La Niña winters,
large portions of central North America experience
increased storminess, and an increased frequency
of signiicant cold-air outbreaks, while the southern
states experience less storminess and precipitation.
There also tends to be considerable month-to-month
variations in temperature, rainfall, and storminess
across central North America during the winter and
spring seasons, in response to the more variable
atmospheric circulation throughout the period. In the
Typical Winter Patterns during La Niña (NOAA/NCEP/CPC)
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
Page
eastern U.S., during the winter, there are generally
fewer coastal storms and more Alberta Clippers (fast
eastward-tracking storms across the northern states)
than normal. In the summer and autumn, La Niña
can inluence hurricane development, often resulting
in fewer eastern Paciic hurricanes and more Atlantic
hurricanes.
Use of Indicators and Indices
One of the primary indicators of ENSO events,
Sea Surface Temperature (SST), is closely
monitored throughout the Paciic Ocean,
including Niño 3.4, a region stretching along
the equator from 170ºW to 120ºW longitude
and from 5ºN to 5ºS latitude. An index for
monitoring and assessing the oceanic state
of ENSO, known as the Oceanic Niño Index
(ONI), is based on this region and represents
the sea surface temperature departure from a
long-term average.
Use of Computer Models
Numerical models have been developed to
study and predict ENSO events and their
effects on weather patterns throughout the
world. Though by no means perfect, under
certain conditions, these models can indicate
which climatic conditions are likely to prevail
during the next season or two.
Map showing latitude, longitude, sea surface temperature in degrees
Celsius, and the area known as Niño 3.4.
Where Can I Find More
Information?
How do Scientists Monitor
and Predict ENSO
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center
web site has myriad resources, including
educational materials, information on
current conditions and outlooks, and
links to other informative sites:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/
precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
Collection of Data
NOAA operates a network of 70 stationary buoys in
the equatorial Paciic, called the Tropical Atmosphere/
Ocean (TAO) array, which provides data about upper-
ocean and sea surface conditions. Other important data
come from satellites, radiosondes, and the high-density
U.S. surface data network.
NOAA has created one primary web site
that allows access to many other
resources:
http://www.elnino.noaa.gov
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