Wind Turbine Scaling.pdf

A national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy

Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Innovation for Our Energy Future

Wind Turbine Design Cost

and Scaling Model

Technical Report

NREL/TP-500-40566

December 2006

L. Fingersh, M. Hand, and A. Laxson

NREL is operated by Midwest Research Institute ● Battelle Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337

Wind Turbine Design Cost

and Scaling Model

Technical Report

NREL/TP-500-40566

December 2006

L. Fingersh, M. Hand, and A. Laxson

Prepared under Task No. WER6.0703

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393

303-275-3000 • www.nrel.gov

Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

by Midwest Research Institute • Battelle

Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................1

1.0 Purposeof model .............................................................................................................1

2.0 History..............................................................................................................................2

3.0 ModelDescription.............................................................................................................4

3.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................4

3.2 COE ..........................................................................................................................4

3.4 Component Formulas ..............................................................................................10

3.5 AEP......................................................................................................................... 28

4.0 OutputExamples............................................................................................................34

5.0 References.....................................................................................................................37

List of Figures

Figure 1. Blade Mass Scaling Relationship ............................................................................11

Figure 2. Blade Cost Scaling Relationship (per blade) ...........................................................12

Figure 3. Tower Mass Scaling Relationship ...........................................................................20

List of Tables

Table 1. GDP Escalation for All Categories Versus PPI for Selected Categories .....................7

Table 2. Cost Estimate from Scaling Model: Land-Based, 1.5-MW Baseline Turbine .............35

Table 3. Cost Estimate from Scaling Model: Offshore (Shallow-Water) 3-MW

Baseline Turbine.......................................................................................................36

iii

3.3 Cost Summary...........................................................................................................7

Executive Summary

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL) National Wind Technology Center has

been working to develop a reliable tool for estimating the cost of wind-generated electricity,

from both land-based and offshore wind turbines. This model is also intended to provide

projections of the impact on cost from changes in economic indicators such as the Gross

Domestic Product (GDP) and Producer Price Index (PPI). The model described has been built

from work originally done by University of Sutherland under a United Kingdom Department of

Trade and Industry Study and work performed for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under

its Wind Partnerships for Advanced Component Technology (WindPACT) projects. These

models are intended to provide reliable cost projections for wind-generated electricity based on

different scales (sizes) of turbines. They are not intended to predict turbine “pricing,” which is a

function of volatile market factors beyond the scope of this work. The models in this study allow

projections of both land-based and offshore technologies, though offshore technologies are still

in their infancy and forecasts are extremely rough. These models also allow modeling of the cost

impacts of certain advanced technologies that were studied under the WindPACT and Low Wind

Speed Technology (LWST) projects. Cost estimates are projected based on turbine rating, rotor

diameter, hub height, and other key turbine descriptors. Cost scaling functions have been

developed for major components and subsystems. Wherever current industry information is

available, the models have been cross checked or improved based on this industry information.

Annual energy production has been estimated based on the Weibull probability distributions of

wind, a standardized power curve, physical description of the turbine and physical constants and

estimates from aerodynamic and engineering principles associated with aero and machine

performance (efficiencies). The product of this work is a set of scaling functions and a tool that

is capable of constant update and improvement as additional data are made available. As

additional data become available and this model is updated it is expected that new versions of

this description will be issued.

1.0 Purpose of Model

When evaluating any change to the design of a wind turbine, it is critical that the designer

evaluate the impact of the design change on the system cost and performance. The designer

must consider several elements of this process: initial capital cost (ICC), balance of station

(BOS), operations and maintenance (O&M), levelized replacement cost (LRC), and annual

energy production (AEP). As wind turbines grow more sophisticated and increase in size, the

impact of design on these elements is not always clear. For example, increasing AEP may

increase ICC. If one step does not balance out the other, proposed improvements may actually

have a negative overall impact.

The levelized COE has been used by DOE for some years to attempt to evaluate the total system

impact of any change in design. This levelized COE is calculated using a simplified formula that

attempts to limit the impact of financial factors, such as cost of money in wind farm

development, so that the true impact of technical changes can be assessed.

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