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Wind Turbine Design Cost and Scaling Model
A national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
Innovation for Our Energy Future
Wind Turbine Design Cost
and Scaling Model
Technical Report
NREL/TP-500-40566
December 2006
L. Fingersh, M. Hand, and A. Laxson
NREL is operated by Midwest Research Institute ● Battelle Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337
Wind Turbine Design Cost
and Scaling Model
Technical Report
NREL/TP-500-40566
December 2006
L. Fingersh, M. Hand, and A. Laxson
Prepared under Task No. WER6.0703
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
1617 Cole Boulevard, Golden, Colorado 80401-3393
303-275-3000
•
www.nrel.gov
Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy
by Midwest Research Institute
•
Battelle
Contract No. DE-AC36-99-GO10337
NOTICE
This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States government.
Neither the United States government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, makes any
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trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement,
recommendation, or favoring by the United States government or any agency thereof. The views and
opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States
government or any agency thereof.
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Table of Contents
Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................1
1.0 Purposeof model .............................................................................................................1
2.0 History..............................................................................................................................2
3.0 ModelDescription.............................................................................................................4
3.1 Overview ...................................................................................................................4
3.2 COE ..........................................................................................................................4
3.4 Component Formulas ..............................................................................................10
3.5 AEP......................................................................................................................... 28
4.0 OutputExamples............................................................................................................34
5.0 References.....................................................................................................................37
List of Figures
Figure 1. Blade Mass Scaling Relationship ............................................................................11
Figure 2. Blade Cost Scaling Relationship (per blade) ...........................................................12
Figure 3. Tower Mass Scaling Relationship ...........................................................................20
List of Tables
Table 1. GDP Escalation for All Categories Versus PPI for Selected Categories .....................7
Table 2. Cost Estimate from Scaling Model: Land-Based, 1.5-MW Baseline Turbine .............35
Table 3. Cost Estimate from Scaling Model: Offshore (Shallow-Water) 3-MW
Baseline Turbine.......................................................................................................36
iii
3.3 Cost Summary...........................................................................................................7
Executive Summary
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL) National Wind Technology Center has
been working to develop a reliable tool for estimating the cost of wind-generated electricity,
from both land-based and offshore wind turbines. This model is also intended to provide
projections of the impact on cost from changes in economic indicators such as the Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) and Producer Price Index (PPI). The model described has been built
from work originally done by University of Sutherland under a United Kingdom Department of
Trade and Industry Study and work performed for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) under
its Wind Partnerships for Advanced Component Technology (WindPACT) projects. These
models are intended to provide reliable cost projections for wind-generated electricity based on
different scales (sizes) of turbines. They are not intended to predict turbine “pricing,” which is a
function of volatile market factors beyond the scope of this work. The models in this study allow
projections of both land-based and offshore technologies, though offshore technologies are still
in their infancy and forecasts are extremely rough. These models also allow modeling of the cost
impacts of certain advanced technologies that were studied under the WindPACT and Low Wind
Speed Technology (LWST) projects. Cost estimates are projected based on turbine rating, rotor
diameter, hub height, and other key turbine descriptors. Cost scaling functions have been
developed for major components and subsystems. Wherever current industry information is
available, the models have been cross checked or improved based on this industry information.
Annual energy production has been estimated based on the Weibull probability distributions of
wind, a standardized power curve, physical description of the turbine and physical constants and
estimates from aerodynamic and engineering principles associated with aero and machine
performance (efficiencies). The product of this work is a set of scaling functions and a tool that
is capable of constant update and improvement as additional data are made available. As
additional data become available and this model is updated it is expected that new versions of
this description will be issued.
1.0 Purpose of Model
When evaluating any change to the design of a wind turbine, it is critical that the designer
evaluate the impact of the design change on the system cost and performance. The designer
must consider several elements of this process: initial capital cost (ICC), balance of station
(BOS), operations and maintenance (O&M), levelized replacement cost (LRC), and annual
energy production (AEP). As wind turbines grow more sophisticated and increase in size, the
impact of design on these elements is not always clear. For example, increasing AEP may
increase ICC. If one step does not balance out the other, proposed improvements may actually
have a negative overall impact.
The levelized COE has been used by DOE for some years to attempt to evaluate the total system
impact of any change in design. This levelized COE is calculated using a simplified formula that
attempts to limit the impact of financial factors, such as cost of money in wind farm
development, so that the true impact of technical changes can be assessed.
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