Market Timing for DUMmIES.pdf

Market Timing

FOR

DUMmIES

‰

by Joe Duarte, MD

Market Timing For Dummies ®

Published by

Wiley Publishing, Inc.

111 River St.

Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774

www.wiley.com

Published by Wiley Publishing, Inc., Indianapolis, Indiana

Published simultaneously in Canada

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Library of Congress Control Number: 2008939707

ISBN: 978-0-470-38975-1

Manufactured in the United States of America

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

About the Author

Dr. Joe Duarte ( www.joe-duarte.com ) is best known for his candid, no-

nonsense, and prescient expert commentary on the nancial and commodity

markets, such as his on-the-money call on CNBC, June 4, 2008, when he cor-

rectly noted that oil had made a top and that a fall below $110 would take

prices to $100 or less. By September 2008, oil had broken below $100. He

is a widely read analyst and writer and an active trader. His daily Market IQ

column is read by thousands of investors, market timers, and professional

traders around the world.

Dr. Duarte is the author Futures & Options For Dummies, Trading Futures For

Dummies, Successful Biotech Investing, and Successful Energy Sector Investing .

His combined expertise in health care, energy, and the effects of politics and

global intelligence on the nancial markets offers a unique blend of insight

and information to thousands of active investors and political and intelli-

gence a cionados around the world on a daily basis.

Dr. Duarte’s Market Moves column is syndicated to a global audience through

FinancialWire, a leading independent syndicate of nancial information. He is

also a featured columnist on the popular investor Web site Stockhouse.com.

Dr. Duarte is a frequent guest on CNBC and is an original CNBC Market Maven.

He is a regular guest on the Financial Sense Newshour with Jim Puplava radio

show, where he comments on the energy markets and geopolitics.

Dr. Duarte has been writing about the nancial markets since 1990. His

articles and commentary have been featured on Marketwatch.com and in

Barron’s, Smart Money, Medical Economics, and Technical Analysis of Stocks

and Commodities magazines. He has been quoted in the Associated Press,

CNN.com, The Wall Street Journal, Smart Money Magazine, and Investor’s

Business Daily.

In 2003, Dr. Duarte received second place in the professional section of the

Medical Economics Investment Challenge with a 12-month return of 42 percent.

Dr. Duarte published the critically acclaimed market-timing newsletter “The

Wall Street Detective” from 1990–1998, when it became an exclusively elec-

tronic publication. It later was converted to Joe-Duarte.com. His daily market

commentary “Joe Knows” appeared on Financialweb.com from 1998–2000.

Dr. Duarte served as senior columnist for Investorlinks.com from 1998-2001.

He is a registered investment advisor and president of River Willow Capital

Management.

He lives in Dallas, Texas, plays a Gibson ES-135, and loves his vintage Völkl

tennis racket.

Dedication

To family, friends, and market timers around the universe.

Acknowledgments

Writing a book is a unique, lonely, and personal experience, and very few but

the author, the editor(s), and those who share the space-time continuum with

them can understand this. During this one, I had my share of ups and downs

as well as rewards. So I can’t complain. Still, I couldn’t have done it without the

usual gang that helps me on a daily basis. So here’s a big thanks to:

My family, my of ce staffs from my other life, the Wiley editorial staff, espe-

cially Stacy and Traci who helped shepherd me to the nal goal, nearly on

time for once.

Grace “the wonder agent” and purveyor of recurrent gigs. Thank you for

sticking with me.

Frank “the master of all things Web-related,” without whom there would be

no Joe-Duarte.com. Too bad you couldn’t come along on this little expedition.

To Stone Barrington, Michelle Maxwell, and Sean King, Gabriel Allon, Oliver

Stone (the literary character, not the movie director), and other inhabitants

of pages and audio books that help me stay sane as I work and travel.

As always coffee, tea, vitamins, sports drinks, nutrition bars, and the game of

tennis also help.

Special thanks to those who read my books, subscribe to my Web site and

have kept this thing going for 18 years. Who’d’ve thunk it?

And also to two longtime friends, John and Greg, whose interactions with me

always prove to be worthwhile and interesting, to say the least.

My patients who so graciously come back the next day even if I’ve had to run

out of the of ce in a hurry to be on CNBC.

If I’ve forgotten to mention anyone, it wasn’t intentional. I’m not as young as I

used to be.

Publisher’s Acknowledgments

We’re proud of this book; please send us your comments through our Dummies online registration

form located at www.dummies.com/register/ .

Some of the people who helped bring this book to market include the following:

Acquisitions, Editorial, and Media

Development

Project Editor: Traci Cumbay

Acquisitions Editor: Stacy Kennedy

Copy Editor: Traci Cumbay

Editorial Program Coordinator:

Erin Calligan Mooney

Technical Editor: Tim Ord

Senior Editorial Manager: Jennifer Ehrlich

Editorial Supervisor & Reprint Editor:

Carmen Krikorian

Editorial Assistants: Joe Niesen, David Lutton,

Jennette ElNaggar

Cover Photos: Blend Images

Cartoons: Rich Tennant ( www.the5thwave.com )

Composition Services

Project Coordinator: Katie Key

Layout and Graphics: Nikki Gately,

Sarah Philippart, Christine Williams

Proofreader: Christine Sabooni

Indexer: Word Co Indexing Services

Publishing and Editorial for Consumer Dummies

Diane Graves Steele, Vice President and Publisher, Consumer Dummies

Kristin Ferguson-Wagstaffe, Product Development Director, Consumer Dummies

Ensley Eikenburg, Associate Publisher, Travel

Kelly Regan, Editorial Director, Travel

Publishing for Technology Dummies

Andy Cummings, Vice President and Publisher, Dummies Technology/General User

Composition Services

Gerry Fahey, Vice President of Production Services

Debbie Stailey, Director of Composition Services

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