Knight Frank - Rynek mieszkaniowy 2009_Residential market 2009.pdf

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POLAND
2009
RESIDENTIAL
MARKET
RYNEK MIESZKANIOWY
Knight Frank
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
•
In 2008, the residential supply in Poland grew substantially, however the number of unsold
completed units also increased compared to previous years.
•
Residential sales indicators declined signiicantly due to the tightening of mortgage policies
by Polish banks including increased minimum equity requirements for buyers and general
economic concerns of potential buyers.
•
In order to stimulate demand developers have ofered solutions including close cooperation
with inancing banks and the lease-back of completed units.
•
Decreasing sales dynamics and an oversupply of apartments forced developers to lower
asking prices.
PODSUMOWANIE
•
W roku 2008 odnotowano dalszy intensywny wzrost podaży mieszkań w Polsce, przy czym
w porównaniu do lat ubiegłych wzrósł udział lokali gotowych w zakończonych inwestycjach.
•
Zacieśnianie polityki kredytowej banków, podniesienie minimalnej wysokości wkładu
własnego oraz obawy potencjalnych nabywców związane z ogólną sytuacją ekonomiczną
kraju wpłynęły na znaczące obniżenie tempa sprzedaży mieszkań.
•
Współpraca z bankami oraz przygotowanie oferty najmu gotowych lokali to tylko niektóre
z rozwiązań stosowanych przez deweloperów w celu stymulowania popytu.
•
Niskie tempo sprzedaży oraz nadpodaż mieszkań skłoniły deweloperów do obniżania cen
ofertowych.
86403291.041.png
2009
RESIDENTIAL
MARKET
Key economic indicators / Podstawowe wskaźniki ekonomiczne
Key economic indicators - Poland / Podstawowe wskaźniki ekonomiczne - Polska
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009 f/p
Population / Liczba ludności
38.2 mln 38.1 mln 38.1 mln 38.1 mln 38.1 mln
GDP growth / Wzrost PKB
5.4% 6.2% 6.6% 4.8% 2%
Unemployment rate / Stopa bezrobocia
17.6% 14.9% 11.4% 9.5% 11%
Inlation rate (y/y) / Inlacja średnioroczna 2.1% 1.4% 2.5% 4.2% 2.5%
Exchange rate / Kurs walutowy (średni)
USD/PLN
EUR/PLN
3.31
3.88
2.91
3.83
2.43
3.58
2.96
4.17
3.3
4.3
Reference rate of NBP / Stopa referencyjna NBP 4.5% 4.0% 5.0% 4.25% 3.0%
f-forecast / p-prognoza
Source: The Central Statistical Oice, The National Bank of Poland (NBP) / Źródło: Główny Urząd Statystyczny, Narodowy Bank Polski
Average gross monthly income in corporate sector in
Poland and selected cities / Średnie wynagrodzenie
w Polsce i wybranych miastach
Unemployment rate in Poland and selected cities /
Stopa bezrobocia w Polsce i wybranych miastach
5 000
12 %
4 000
10 %
3 000
8 %
6 %
2 000
4%
1 000
2%
0
0
Kraków
Wrocław
Poznań
Gdańsk Warsaw
Wrocław
Kraków
Gdańsk
Warsaw Poznań
Average gross monthly income - major cities 2007 /
Średnie wynagrodzenie - główne miasta 2007
Average gross monthly income - major cities 2008 /
Średnie wynagrodzenie - główne miasta 2008
Average gross monthly income - Poland 2007 /
Średnie wynagrodzenie - Polska 2007
Average gross monthly income - Poland 2008 /
Średnie wynagrodzenie - Polska 2008
Unemployment rate - major cities 2007 /
Stopa bezrobocia - główne miasta 2007
Unemployment rate - major cities 2008 /
Stopa bezrobocia - główne miasta 2008
Unemployment rate - Poland 2007 /
Stopa bezrobocia - Polska 2007
Unemployment rate - Poland 2008 /
Stopa bezrobocia - Polska 2008
Source: The Central Statistical Oice /
Źródło: Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Source: The Central Statistical Oice /
Źródło: Główny Urząd Statystyczny
2
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www.KnightFrank.com.pl
Demand vs. supply
Annual supply in primary markets in selected
Polish cities in Q4 2007 and Q4 2008
20 000
The high supply of new apartments and weakening demand have been the main
features of the Polish residential market in 2008. When compared with Q4 2007
the number of residential units ofered for sale in major regional cities increased from
14% in Kraków up to 44% in Warsaw. Moreover, all major residential markets in Poland
have witnessed an increased share of completed residential units (exceeding even
30%) remaining on ofer, while in 2007 the latter constituted no more than 7%. The
most signiicant number of completed units was ofered by developers in Kraków, while
the lowest supply of such apartments was observed in Warsaw.
15 000
10 000
5 000
Demand for residential units has weakened due to tightening mortgage policies in
most Polish banks triggered by the credit crunch. H2 2008 has seen a high increases
in bank margins accompanied by progressive weakening of the Polish currency.
In addition, many banks have raised equity requirements to at least 10%. These
combined factors have negatively inluenced the possibility of loan repayments,
mortgage availability and the average loan amount.
0
Warsaw
Kraków
Wrocław
Poznań Gdańsk
Q4 2007
Q4 2008
Completed apartments
Source: Knight Frank
Despite the apparent absorption slowdown, when combined with the limited inancing
availability, the number of newly introduced residential schemes in 2008 represents
a relatively high level. Over the last year in each of the four regional residential markets
some 25-50 new residential schemes were introduced to the market, and over 80 new
projects in Warsaw. In total some 230 projects, accommodating over 19,600 residential
units, with completion date no later than 2010, were ofered to potential buyers in all of
these markets in 2008.
The volume of supply and absorption rate observed in 2008 show postponed
reaction of residential markets in Poland to the demand generated during the boom of
2006/2007. The number of units ofered in new schemes does not relect the
deteriorating market conditions as it exceeded the number of units sold in 2008.
The most signiicant disproportion has been observed in Poznań where four large-scale
projects (200-300 units) were introduced to the market in 2008.
Willa Księcia Witolda, Wrocław
Due to the turmoil in the inancial markets resulting in increasing interest rates, and a more
conservative lending approach adopted by mortgage providers, a signiicant decline in
demand has been observed, particularly in the ‘popular standard’ schemes. Reduced
credit capacity has prevented a large group of potential buyers from accessing mortgage
inance. However, the Polish Government’s Plan, “Family’s Own Home,” aimed at
subsidizing loans for irst time home buyers (recently married and single parents) seems
to give a fair promise of success. The programme encompasses residential units of up to
75 sq m with price per sq m not exceeding the parameters established by the Bank
Gospodarstwa Krajowego for particular cities and regions in Poland.
Supply vs. absorption in major markets in
Poland in 2008
10 000
8 000
6 000
4 000
Low sale indicators have forced developers to search for alternative methods to
stimulate demand. Some vendors have cooperated with banking institutions in order
to ofer potential customers increased mortgage availability at preferential rates. These
include lower margin levels and no lending fees regardless of the repayment period or
loan amount.
2 000
0
Warsaw
Kraków
Wrocław
Poznań Gdańsk
Units sold in 2008
Some developers who were unable to sell stock are now considering a rental option
addressed to customers with current insuicient credit capacity. The lessee will have an
Units introduced
to the market in 2008
Source: Knight Frank
3
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2009
RESIDENTIAL
MARKET
acquisition option in a number of years on agreed terms. Moreover, in order to increase
the credit capacity of their customers, developers are introducing a loan support
programme aiming to subsidize instalments during the irst years of loan repayment.
Apartamenty Wielicka, Warsaw
Further tightening of mortgage policies, the irst signs of economic slowdown, job
insecurity and weakening purchasing power are expected to negatively inluence the
number of new schemes commenced in 2009. Key market players in the Polish
residential market have already announced plans to suspend the planning process
of selected residential developments. In 2008 several residential schemes under
construction were postponed, while it was announced that some were to be converted
into commercial use. Only 50% of all residential units scheduled for commencement in
2008 have actually been started.
Should rate of sale continue at the average level observed in 2008, a reduction in the
number of new schemes would positively inluence the balance of supply and demand.
As a consequence, the irst signs of improvements in the Polish residential market may
be observed from H2 2010.
Residential units pipeline planned to be com-
menced in 2008 vs. number of commenced
apartments
Prices
25 000
20 000
At the beginning of 2008 unit prices saw insigniicant luctuations while towards the
year end an apparent downward trend was evident. In addition, new schemes have
been already ofered at lower prices to attract irst-time buyers, pushing down the
prices in projects at the more advanced stage of construction.
15 000
10 000
The residential market in Poland has evolved into a buyer’s market. Decreased selling
pace, followed by an oversupply of residential units forced the vendors to adjust their
expectations to market conditions, and to openly lower prices. Moreover, developers
started to allow price negotiations in sales oices. The estimates conirm that asking
and transaction prices difered by as much as double digit percentages.
5 000
0
Warsaw
Kraków
Wrocław
Poznań Gdańsk
Number of apartments
commenced in 2008
Residential units planned
to be commenced in 2008
Amongst the regional markets, Gdańsk has observed the most signiicant price
decreases over the last year, mostly in the popular and upper standard schemes – by
10% and 9% respectively. In these sectors Gdańsk remains the least expensive regional
market in Poland.
Source: Knight Frank
In Warsaw, price adjustment occurred mainly within the popular and upper standard
schemes, while high standard schemes showed an annual growth in a weighted
average net price of 6%. The latter was partly a consequence of the larger volume
and a higher average price than in the previous year.
In Kraków an annual price decrease was observed in all segments of the residential
market. Prices declined in Kraków, depending on the standard, by 5-10%.
In 2008 Wrocław and Poznań witnessed price decreases in popular and high standard
residential schemes. Prices in the higher standard residential developments in Wrocław
and Poznań remained stable in comparison to Q4 2007.
A reduction of construction costs by 10-20% has partially compensated developers for
the decrease in apartments prices observed in 2008.
Tivoli, Warsaw
4
86403291.016.png
www.KnightFrank.com.pl
Net prices in the selected Polish cities by standard of schemes (Q4 2008)
City
Segment share in
market ofer
Net unit price
(PLN/sq m)
Price change
since Q4 2007
Popular standard schemes
Warsaw
61%
7,150
- 4%
Poznań
69%
6,150
- 10%
Kraków
64%
6,100
- 5%
Wrocław
81%
5,800
- 7%
Gdańsk
77%
5,400
- 10%
Upper standard schemes
Warsaw
35%
9,700
- 4%
Apartamenty Platinum, Wrocław
Wrocław
10%
8,600
0%
Kraków
30%
8,500
- 10%
Poznań
21%
8,450
0%
Gdańsk
13%
8,050
- 9%
High standard schemes
Warsaw
4%
19,000
+ 6%
Kraków
6%
14,550
- 7%
Wrocław
9%
11,750
- 10%
Gdańsk
10%
11,600
- 3%
Poznań
10%
10,400
- 2%
Source: Knight Frank
Developers
The decrease of speculative and investment purchases combined with weakening
demand have limited developers’ revenues from units sale. As a consequence,
keeping cash lows positive has been more diicult than in the boom period.
Diiculties in securing debt inance have pushed developers to search for alternative
methods of inancing e.g. mezzanine, participation of equity investors which should
allow commencement of at least some of the scheduled projects.
Despite the declining market conditions, an increasing number of companies
considered entering the stock exchange in 2008. The Warsaw Stock Exchange
welcomed two development companies, though neither of them managed to secure
enough inancing for new residential investments. The WIG-Deweloperzy index
decreased by 72% compared to Q4 2007. Based on the latest economic forecasts,
the currently observed slowdown is expected to continue in 2009.
Cztery Pory Roku, Wrocław
Due to the economic downturn expected throughout 2009, some development
companies may sufer from reduced inancial liquidity. However this situation may
be a big advantage to cash-rich companies, both existing players and new equity
investors, to secure or take over interesting developments or create lower cost land
banking.
Trends 2009
•
Restricted demand;
•
Decreasing costs of mortgages in PLN;
•
Falling construction costs of new schemes;
•
Increase in sites availability;
•
Veriication of developers and their projects by potential purchasers.
Zielona Wyspa, Wrocław
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