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STOCK

TRADER’S

ALMANAC

2OO5

Yale Hirsch & Jeffrey A. Hirsch

John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

The Hirsch Organization Inc. ◆ 184 Central Avenue ◆ Old Tappan NJ 07675

www.hirschorg.com

Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey

Published simultaneously in Canada

Editor in Chief

Jeffrey A. Hirsch

Editor at Large

Yale Hirsch

Vice President

J. Taylor Brown

Associate Editor

Robert Cardwell

Data Coordinator

Christopher Mistal

Web Development

Nexgen (nexgenus.com)

Graphic Design

Darlene Dion Design

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transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,

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John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, 201-748-6011,

fax 201-748-6008.

Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used

their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with

respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically

disclaim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.

No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales

materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your

situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the

publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial dam-

ages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages.

For general information on our other products and services, or technical support, please

contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at 800-762-2974,

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For more information about Wiley products, visit our Web site at www.wiley.com.

ISBN: 0-471-64936-8

Printed in the United States of America

10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

This Thirty-Eighth Edition is respectfully dedicated to:

Bob Pisani

A CNBC On-Air Stocks Editor since 1990, who reports on the Markets

from the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. Nominated twice for a

CableACE Award, in 1993 and 1995, he is a voice of reason during

turbulent markets, providing excellent insight to viewers while conveying

market seasonality and recurring patterns with unmatched clarity.

The Stock Trader’s Almanac ® is an organizer. Its wealth of information is presented

on a calendar basis. The Almanac puts investing in a business framework and makes

investing easier because it:

• updates investment knowledge and informs you of new techniques and tools.

• is a monthly reminder and refresher course.

• alerts you to both seasonal opportunities and dangers.

• furnishes an historical viewpoint by providing pertinent statistics on past market

performance.

• supplies forms necessary for portfolio planning, record keeping and

tax preparation.

We are constantly searching for new insights and nuances about the stock market

and welcome any suggestions from our readers.

Have a healthy and prosperous 2005!

Signifies THIRD FRIDAY OF THE MONTH on calendar pages and

alerts you to extraordinary volatility due to expiration of equity and index

options and index futures contracts. Triple-witching days appear during

March, June, September and December.

The BULL SYMBOL on calendar pages signifies very favorable trading

days based on the S&P 500 rising 60% or more of the time on a

particular trading day during the 21-year period January 1983 to

December 2003 (see Recent S&P 500 Market Probability Calendar

2005, page 123). Market Probability Calendars for the NASDAQ, Dow and S&P

for other time periods appear on pages 120-122. Other seasonalities near the ends,

beginnings and middles of months; options expirations; around holidays; and other

times are noted for Almanac investors’ convenience on the weekly planner pages.

INTRODUCTION TO THE THIRTY-EIGHTH EDITION

We are pleased and proud to introduce the Thirty-Eighth Edition of the Stock Trader’s Almanac .

The Almanac provides you with the necessary tools to invest successfully in the twenty-first century.

J.P. Morgan’s classic retort “Stocks will fluctuate” is often quoted with a wink-of-the-eye

implication that the only prediction one can make about the stock market is that it will go up, down,

or sideways. Many investors agree that no one ever really knows which way the market will move.

Nothing could be further from the truth. We discovered that while stocks do indeed fluctuate, they

do so in well-defined, often predictable, patterns. These patterns recur too frequently to be the result

of chance or coincidence. How else do we explain that since 1950 practically all the gains in the

market were made during November through April compared to almost nothing May through

October? (See page 50.)

The Almanac is a practical investment tool. Its wealth of information is organized on a

calendar basis. It alerts you to those little-known market patterns and tendencies on which

shrewd professionals enhance profit potential.

You will be able to forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence when you use the

Almanac to help you understand:

• How our presidential elections affect the economy and the stock market — just as the moon

affects the tides. Many investors have made fortunes following the political cycle. You can be

sure that money managers who control billions of millions of dollars are also political cycle

watchers. Astute people do not ignore a pattern that has been working effectively throughout

most of our economic history.

• How the passage of the Twentieth Amendment to the Constitution fathered the January Barometer.

This barometer has an outstanding record for predicting the general course of the stock market each

year with only five major errors since 1950 for a 90.7% accuracy ratio.

• Why there is a significant market bias at certain times of the day, week, month

and year.

Even if you are an investor who pays scant attention to cycles, indicators and patterns, your

investment survival could hinge on your interpretation of one of the recurring patterns found within these

pages. One of the most intriguing and important patterns is the symbiotic relationship between

Washington and Wall Street. Aside from the potential profitability in seasonal patterns, there’s the pure

joy of seeing the market very often do just what you expected.

There has never been a losing “fifth” year since 1885 (page 126). Years ending in five

have the best record, as the strongest bull markets tend to favor the middle years of

decades. But 2005 is a Post-Election year and investors have often “paid the piper”

(page 36) the first year of a President’s term. In addition the struggling economy,

swelling federal deficit, high oil and commodity prices, inflation and interest rates are

likely to weigh heavily on stock prices.

We are observing the potential formation of an ominous pattern — Three Peaks and

Domed House. Developed by the late George Lindsay, this pattern, one of the most

extraordinary in history, has occurred at almost every major market top as it did in 2000.

Presently, the major averages have traced out the Three Peaks half of the pattern with

tops in February (January for NASDAQ), April and June — the crucial separating

decline section is now potentially underway. That could put the Domed House top some-

time in the first half of 2005. We’ll be monitoring to see if this pattern pans out in our

Almanac Investor newsletter and at stocktradersalmanac.com .

Barring an unforeseen exogenous event that causes the market to collapse in the rest

of 2004, by mid-2005 the bull cycle in play since the October 2002 bottom will likely be

wearing thin and Wall Street as well as Washington will be wrestling with a host of

economic and geopolitical hurdles, making the prospects for 2005 flat to down.

— Jeffrey A. Hirsch, August 9, 2004

Yale Hirsch - Stock Traders Almanac 2005.pdf

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