Mapping the Global Muslim Population, A Report on the Size and Distribution of the World’s Muslim Population - October 2009.pdf

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MAPPING THE
GLOBAL MUSLIM
POPULATION
A Report on the Size and
Distribution of the World’s
Muslim Population
October 2009
About the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life
This report was produced by the Pew Research Center’s Forum on Religion & Public Life. The Pew
Forum delivers timely, impartial information on issues at the intersection of religion and public
affairs. The Pew Forum is a nonpartisan, nonadvocacy organization and does not take positions
on policy debates. Based in Washington, D.C., the Pew Forum is a project of the Pew Research
Center, which is funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts.
This report is a collaborative effort based on the input and analysis of the following individuals:
Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life
Luis Lugo, Director
Communications and Web Publishing
Erin O’Connell, Associate Director, Communications
Oliver Read, Web Manager
Loralei Coyle, Communications Manager
Robert Mills, Communications Associate
Liga Plaveniece, Program Coordinator
Research
Alan Cooperman, Associate Director, Research
Brian J. Grim, Senior Researcher
Mehtab S. Karim, Visiting Senior Research Fellow
Sahar Chaudhry, Research Analyst
Becky Hsu, Project Consultant
Jacqueline E. Wenger, Research Associate
Kimberly McKnight, Megan Pavlischek and
Hilary Ramp, Research Interns
Pew Research Center
Andrew Kohut, President
Paul Taylor, Executive Vice President
Scott Keeter, Director of Survey Research
Michael Piccorossi, Director of Operations
Michael Keegan, Graphics Director
Alicia Parlapiano, Infographics Designer
Russell Heimlich, Web Developer
Editorial
Sandra Stencel, Associate Director, Editorial
Andrea Useem, Contributing Editor
Tracy Miller, Editor
Sara Tisdale, Assistant Editor
Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life
1615 L St., NW, Suite 700
Washington, D.C. 20036-5610
Phone (202) 419-4550
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© 2009 Pew Research Center
MAPPING THE
GLOBAL MUSLIM POPULATION
A REPORT ON THE SIZE AND DISTRIBUTION
OF THE WORLD’S MUSLIM POPULATION
Table of Contents
Executive Summary .................................................................................................... 1
Asia Predominates .................................................................................................. 5
Living as Majorities and Minorities ....................................................................... 7
Sunni and Shia Populations ................................................................................... 8
Regional Distribution of Muslims ............................................................................ 12
Asia-Paciic ............................................................................................................ 12
Middle East-North Africa ...................................................................................... 16
Sub-Saharan Africa ............................................................................................... 19
Europe .................................................................................................................... 21
Americas ................................................................................................................ 24
World Muslim Population by Region and Country ................................................. 27
Appendix A: Methodology for Muslim Population Estimates .............................. 35
Appendix B: Methodology for Sunni-Shia Estimates ........................................... 38
Appendix C: Data Sources by Country ................................................................... 42
Appendix D: Advisers and Consultants .................................................................. 56
PEW FORUM ON RELIGION & PUBLIC LIFE / MAPPING THE GLOBAL MUSLIM POPULATION
Executive Summary
A comprehensive demographic study of more than 200 countries finds that there are 1.57 billion
Muslims of all ages living in the world today, representing 23% of an estimated 2009 world
population of 6.8 billion.
While Muslims are found on all five inhabited continents, more than 60% of the global Muslim
population is in Asia and about 20% is in the Middle East and North Africa. However, the Middle
East-North Africa region has the highest percentage of Muslim-majority countries. Indeed, more
than half of the 20 countries and territories 1 in that region have populations that are approximately
95% Muslim or greater.
More than 300 million Muslims, or one-fifth of the world’s Muslim population, live in countries
where Islam is not the majority religion. These minority Muslim populations are often quite
large. India, for example, has the third-largest population of Muslims worldwide. China has more
Muslims than Syria, while Russia is home to more Muslims than Jordan and Libya combined.
Of the total Muslim population, 10-13% are Shia Muslims and 87-90% are Sunni Muslims. Most
Shias (between 68% and 80%) live in just four countries: Iran, Pakistan, India and Iraq.
These are some of the key findings of Mapping the Global Muslim Population: A Report on the
Size and Distribution of the World’s Muslim Population , a new study by the Pew Research Center’s
Forum on Religion & Public Life. The report offers the most up-to-date and fully sourced estimates
of the size and distribution of the worldwide Muslim population, including sectarian identity.
Previously published estimates of the size of the global Muslim population have ranged widely,
from 1 billion to 1.8 billion. 2 But these commonly quoted estimates often have appeared without
citations to specific sources or explanations of how the figures were generated.
The Pew Forum report is based on the best available data for 232 countries and territories.
Pew Forum researchers, in consultation with nearly 50 demographers and social scientists at
universities and research centers around the world, acquired and analyzed about 1,500 sources,
including census reports, demographic studies and general population surveys, to arrive at these
figures – the largest project of its kind to date. (See Methodology for more detail.)
1 For a definition of “territories,” see the methodology in Appendix A.
2 See, for example, CIA World Factbook ( https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html );
Foreign Policy magazine, May 2007 ( http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=3835 ); Who Speaks for
Islam: What a Billion Muslims Really Think, 2008 ( http://www.gallup.com/press/104206/WHO-SPEAKS-ISLAM.aspx );
Adherents.com ( http://www.adherents.com/Religions_By_Adherents.html ); and IslamicPopulation.com ( http://www.
islamicpopulation.com/world_general.html ).
Executive Summary
www.pewforum.org
1
PEW FORUM ON RELIGION & PUBLIC LIFE / MAPPING THE GLOBAL MUSLIM POPULATION
The Pew Forum’s estimate of the Shia population (10-13%) is in keeping with previous estimates,
which generally have been in the range of 10-15%. Some previous estimates, however, have
placed the number of Shias at nearly 20% of the world’s Muslim population. 3 Readers should
bear in mind that the figures given in this report for the Sunni and Shia populations are less
precise than the figures for the overall Muslim population. Data on sectarian affiliation have been
infrequently collected or, in many countries, not collected at all. Therefore, the Sunni and Shia
numbers reported here are expressed as broad ranges and should be treated as approximate.
These findings on the world Muslim population lay the foundation for a forthcoming study by the
Pew Forum, scheduled to be released in 2010, that will estimate growth rates among Muslim
populations worldwide and project Muslim populations into the future. The Pew Forum plans to
launch a similar study of global Christianity in 2010 as well. The Pew Forum also plans to conduct
in-depth public opinion surveys on the intersection of religion and public life around the world,
starting with a 19-country survey of sub-Saharan Africa scheduled to be released later this year.
These forthcoming studies are part of a larger effort - the Global Religious Futures Project, jointly
funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts and the John Templeton Foundation - that aims to increase
people’s understanding of religion around the world.
3 See, for example, IslamicWeb.com ( http://www.islamicweb.com/beliefs/cults/shia_population.htm ); “Shia Muslims in
the Middle East,” Council on Foreign Relations, June 2006 ( http://www.cfr.org/publication/10903/ ); and “The Revival of
Shia Islam,” Vali Nasr speaking at a Pew Forum event, July 2006 ( http://pewforum.org/events/?EventID=120 ).
Executive Summary
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